Re: Is guessing a good strategy for surviving in the IT business?

Define: guess.

I frequently arrive at a conclusion about something; without being able to justify why. I never deny it.

Cop shows call it: going with their gut.
Women prefer to call it: their intuition.
Athletes, dancers and woodworkers may refer to it as: muscle memory.
You may call what I'm describing: an informed guess.
A bookmaker might call it: the odds on favorite.
A gambler may call it: lady luck.
A snooker player: the percentage shot.
A scientist: fortuitous.
An engineer: the experience call.
A statistician: the median outcome.

I tend to call it the "obvious choice in the absence of more data"; or "the logical choice given what is known".

Hindsight can be 20/20; but it can also take 20 years; or 20 decades; or 20 centuries.

No decision may be the wrong decision; but only if there is no more time in which to acquire more data. A premature decision is the worst decision of all.

With the rise and rise of 'Social' network sites: 'Computers are making people easier to use everyday'

Examine what is said, not who speaks -- Silence betokens consent -- Love the truth but pardon error.

"Science is about questioning the status quo. Questioning authority".

In the absence of evidence, opinion is indistinguishable from prejudice.

Comment on Re: Is guessing a good strategy for surviving in the IT business?

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Re^2: Is guessing a good strategy for surviving in the IT business? by Ratazong (Monsignor) on Dec 17, 2014 at 21:32 UTC
A premature decision is the worst decision of all. In my experience, that's wrong: No decision is definetly the worst decision. If you take a wrong decision, or a premature one, you can always fix it ... but many people/managers tend to wait and wait - till the time of decision-making has passed (and then they are surprised that they get nothing - not even an 80%-solution which can be improved). Just my (professional) experience - yours may differ! Rata	[reply]
Re^3: Is guessing a good strategy for surviving in the IT business? by BrowserUk (Patriarch) on Dec 18, 2014 at 05:05 UTC
but many people/managers tend to wait and wait - till the time of decision-making has passed I did say (with added emphasis): "but only if there is no more time* in which to acquire more data."*; and, and I know its a subtle point, but failing to make a decision, isn't really a decision :) It's a fine line (and another decision :), between waiting for more information; and deciding that no more useful information will become available in the time that is left. With the rise and rise of 'Social' network sites: 'Computers are making people easier to use everyday' Examine what is said, not who speaks -- Silence betokens consent -- Love the truth but pardon error. "Science is about questioning the status quo. Questioning authority". In the absence of evidence, opinion is indistinguishable from prejudice.	[reply]


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