use strict;
use warnings;

my $log_dir   = "dir";
my $log_pre   = "file";
my $hist_size = 10;

foreach(sort {($b =~ m/(\d+)$/)[0] <=> ($a =~ m/(\d+)$/)[0]} <$log_dir/$log_pre.*>){
         my $f=$_; 
         s/(\d+)$/$1+1/e;
         if($1 >= $hist_size){ unlink $f; }else{ rename $f,$_; }
}