in reply to Re: Terminal decline?
in thread Terminal decline?

they visit regularly for a while, then drift away, depending on the demands of their life. However, new members join, with some old and some new questions.

I agree it was always so.

But my impression has been that for the last few years; new people come, stay for a shorter time and don't some back.

In addition; the threads are shorter; there is less open debate; less to and fro and interchange of ideas. Basically, just less.

And when I went looking; the stats; every which way I viewed them, backed that up.

I'd love a couple of hours read-only access to the DB; then I could really extract some useful -- though probably depressing -- numbers.

But, those I've already looked at tell enough of the story to allow me to be confident in my conclusions.

With the rise and rise of 'Social' network sites: 'Computers are making people easier to use everyday'
Examine what is said, not who speaks -- Silence betokens consent -- Love the truth but pardon error.
"Science is about questioning the status quo. Questioning authority". I'm with torvalds on this
In the absence of evidence, opinion is indistinguishable from prejudice. Agile (and TDD) debunked

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Re^3: Terminal decline?
by jdporter (Paladin) on Jun 12, 2015 at 17:11 UTC

    One class of statistic which, I think, readily paints the picture is the reputation of undisputedly popular posts. The Best Nodes over the past year have rep in the 50s to as high as 90. In the old days, breaking 100 was not unusual. In contrast, today's 50 Selected Best Nodes all have rep over 99; 5 are above 190, the highest being 260. Not one of those 50 is later than 2008. Of course, nodes which have been around since 'the old days' have had more time to collect upvotes; but I believe that in general the vast majority of votes are cast on a node within the first few weeks of its existence.

    Another way to see something similar might be to look at the reputation of your own "best nodes". My 49 best nodes are all 2010 or earlier; and all of my nodes which are better than 90 rep (there are seven of them) are 2007 or earlier. No post of mine has hit 40 rep since 2012. I am not a prolific poster, though; someone like BrowserUK might have a more meaningful trend line.

    (Update: s/XP/rep/g for nodes.)

    I reckon we are the only monastery ever to have a dungeon stuffed with 16,000 zombies.
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      someone like BrowserUK might have a more meaningful trend line.

      Your impression is born out by my posts. These are my highest scoring nodes for each year I've been here. The trend you cite is clear. 

       180320    219    2002-07-08 20:44
 262941    208    2003-06-04 10:31
 409922    143    2004-11-23 15:57
 433614    134    2005-02-23 08:26
 614216    127    2007-05-08 18:44
 532956    125    2006-02-27 03:57
 678668     97    2008-04-06 18:45
 876153     83    2010-12-09 02:50
 735910     72    2009-01-13 10:25
 995694     71    2012-09-26 04:28
 939629     61    2011-11-23 10:09
1128661     61    2015-06-01 22:09
1060710     55    2013-11-01 05:20
1090675     55    2014-06-20 19:28

      [download]

      Which is even more depressing if we can assume that at my best; I've gotten better year on year.

      With the rise and rise of 'Social' network sites: 'Computers are making people easier to use everyday'
      Examine what is said, not who speaks -- Silence betokens consent -- Love the truth but pardon error.
      "Science is about questioning the status quo. Questioning authority". I'm with torvalds on this
      In the absence of evidence, opinion is indistinguishable from prejudice. Agile (and TDD) debunked
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        even more depressing
        To check your progress, compare the numbers with the monthly average XP: Average Node XP per Month.
        لսႽ† ᥲᥒ⚪⟊Ⴙᘓᖇ Ꮅᘓᖇ⎱ Ⴙᥲ𝇋ƙᘓᖇ
[reply]

      The Best Nodes over the past year have XP in the 50s to as high as 90. In the old days, breaking 100 was not unusual.
      Indeed. I've kept historical data on best nodes since 2007. As you can see, prior to 2009, even the twentieth best node of the year was 100+ while today the best node never reaches 100. The last centurion was in 2011.

      That said, I don't see any dramatic decline in best node scores over the past three years. And I find it encouraging that the recent Re: why does location of function matter? quickly shot up to 61 in only a week or two.

      In the good old days, if I had a node in the top nodes of the year, it used to pick up several points per month for pretty much the whole year. Nowadays, it might pick up a point or two for the few months, then tends to stagnate for the rest of the year; for example, The First Ten Perl Monks is now stalled on 90 points and will probably stay there indefinitely (unless the act of mentioning it here "un-stalls" it :).

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