in reply to Re: Lottery combinations golf
in thread Lottery combinations golf

Look, the money is in your hands, and if you want to spend it on tickets that's your decision to make, but since you were talking about math, I just thought I'd bring up the mathematical side of the thing. If you want to buy dreams, hey, it's your money. Some people justify it by saying it's fun, and all forms of entertainment cost money. Sure, okay. But as far as the mathematics of the thing are concerned, it's an expenditure, not an investment of any kind. Ordinarily I don't trouble most people with this, because it just upsets them, but you were showing enough interest in math that I thought maybe you'd be interested.
Given that you won't participate in a lottery because math says that your expected winning is less than your wager, would you participate in a gambling if the expected winnings is higher than the wager? Or to be more concrete, give the following game: a coin is flipped until it comes up head, on the nth flip. You are then paid 2n dollars. How much are you willing to pay to participate in this game? Standard math will say "everything you own". Despite there's a 50% chance you'll end up with 2 dollars.

There's a solution to this problem http://rec-puzzles.org/sol.pl/decision/stpetersburg and part of it that involves the observation that one's desire for money isn't linear in the amount of money involved. Your first million dollars means more to you than your second.

But there are other things involved as well. Even if people don't win at a lottery, they get something out of it. Just the thrill of participating, seeing the numbers fall, or the dream of getting rich. It's not at all different from people paying money to get into a roller-coaster. The expected monetairy gain is 0. Yet people are willing to pay the price, because it satisfies some need. That's an economical explaination, but economics involves a lot of math as well.

Abigail

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Re: Lottery combinations golf
by jonadab (Parson) on Oct 13, 2003 at 19:32 UTC
    a coin is flipped until it comes up head, on the nth flip. You are then paid 2n dollars. How much are you willing to pay to participate in this game?

    Depends. Do I get to participate on a regular basis, like one does in a lottery?

    one's desire for money isn't linear in the amount of money involved

    Yes, I know about the law of diminishing returns, but that's actually another argument against buying lottery tickets, because it further decreases the value of a chance at winning. There are additional factors as well that decrease it even further -- taxes, as I briefly mentioned, the tendency of most lottery winners to end up with nothing to show for it five or ten years later, and so on. I didn't feel the need to bring these things up because just calculating the expected return is convincing enough in itself, except for the people who aren't going to be convinced regardless.


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