> "There is hardly anything that people would not do in order not to have to think."

I really like that quote, but couldn't find the source. (Just a similar one from Jung and avoiding ones soul.)

But I found this study interesting in this context

To Avoid Thinking Hard, We Will Endure Anything—Even Pain A study

Regarding your analysis, it's sound if you only expect LLMs to continue the same way, that is being trained on human data stolen from the Internet.

But do you remember this Go playing program which trained itself and was beating all human champions? (See AlphaGo Zero)

I could imagine future helper AIs interacting with software designers who provides kind of a test suite defining the expected outcome and a self trained machine provides solutions.

But this software designer will need a lot of skills, more than the usual user of ChatGPT.

Because like always this code has to stay maintainable. (In a way)

In contrast Vibe programs from amateurs are likely to be throw away code.

In the end all of these are economic questions

• how expensive will it be to keep the code maintained?
• (Update: Or can we just keep and modify the prompts to always create new programs instead of maintaining them? )
• Or even more basic: Can we afford/risk to rely on computer systems which are not anymore maintainable by humans?

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