if I understand your question correctly (and I am not completely sure I do) what you suggest is equivalent to the following problems:

What are the odds of picking the ace of spades from a shuffled deck of cards?

Now, pick a card, insert it back in the deck and shuffle. What are the odds of picking the same card again?

Finally, pick cards from the deck until you get a face card, insert all them back and shuffle. If you pick a card now, what are the odds of it being that face card again?

<Reveal this spoiler or all in this thread>

In reply to Re: [OT] Stats problem by salva
in thread [OT] Stats problem by BrowserUk

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