Kenneth, thanks for your continued explorations. I've been looking at this most of the day, and I think I finally made a decision.
Looking in detail at the differences between the original data (red), my original algorithm (blue); graff's agorithm (black) and your latest algorithm (green); there is one place where I think your algorithm is clearly superior: the bottom left corner of the top right zoom, where your algorithm splits the difference between mine and graff's; and I think is clearly a better reflection of the underlying trend of the original data.
However, as you pointed out, it does 'invent' points, which neither of the other two do. I also agree that in most other cases yours has a tendency to bias high.
So after much umming and aahing, I'm going with graffs algorithm. Thanks.
With the rise and rise of 'Social' network sites: 'Computers are making people easier to use everyday'
Examine what is said, not who speaks -- Silence betokens consent -- Love the truth but pardon error.
In the absence of evidence, opinion is indistinguishable from prejudice.
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