Assuming monty *always* opens a wrong door

You have a critical flaw in your logic. You assume that your original choice has anything to do with the chance of you winnning.. And it doesn't. Your first choice is irrelevant. When monty asks you to switch you always have the option of picking from one of 2 doors. One that will win, and one what will loose.

Agreed, when you remove 1 door, you still have a .333 chance that your ORIGINAL decision is correct. HOWEVER, once one door is removed, you are left with a new choice between 2 doors. One being the car, and one being the goat. You now have a .5 chance of walking away with a goat, but a .333 chance that your original guess is correct.

The probablilty of you being right on your first choice is ALWAYS .333, HOWERVER the probability of you winning is ALWAYS .5

"If you're ever on the show this means you should change your door!"

Sure, go ahead... You still have the same shot at winning.

Rick

In reply to Re: The Monty Hall Trap Simulator by rsmorawski
in thread The Monty Hall Trap Simulator by Anonymous Monk

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