If you're only expecting 100 errors, the variance will be about 10. Your results are indeed low for the expected rates in the low-rate calculations. How good is your random number generator?.
I got:
Error rate = 1 every 10, errors = 100046 99765 100442 99969 99433
Error rate = 1 every 100, errors = 10134 9873 10067 10072 9842
Error rate = 1 every 1000, errors = 1012 1056 1015 986 1055
Error rate = 1 every 10000, errors = 103 101 105 93 96
Error rate = 1 every 100000, errors = 8 14 10 14 11
without any modification of your code.
Update: Athlon/Linux 2.4.17/Perl 5.6.1 for this run. /dev/random is available.
After Compline,
Zaxo
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