I'm sure you are right that more Java programmers are coming out of colleges and more Java jobs are posted. But without real numbers, I'm still not sure there aren't more Perl programmers and more Perl being used in the workplace/tech-office than Java. I really think image is most of the problem and I'm not 100% pro-certificate but I think it *would* help Perl's image.
Eg: I use Perl in my job every day though my job description says nothing about it; it makes my job easier. Every sysadmin, DBA, and C-hacker I know personally uses Perl (and quite a few of the C-hackers dabble in Ruby too).
I work in a large company and of the 20 or so tech jobs open right now. Roughly 25% ask for Java and 50% ask for Perl. And even that is HR's misunderstanding of the work to be done. From experience in the office I can tell you that 10% will end up using Java and 80% will use Perl. But even there, where most of the company relies on it every day, there is a misunderstanding about Perl's ubiquity and usefulness.
On a related note, just found this online for Java certification. Passing scores range from 52% to 70%. Hmmmm... The best work you can be guaranteed to get from a certified Java programmer seems to be "C-" work and you just might be getting a solid "F." :)
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