Please read Re^4: Marilyn Vos Savant's Monty Hall problem carefully, especially where I wrote
the host knows and will not open the door with the car (emphasis mine)
The knowledge Mr. Hall has and how he uses it is unambiguous. He always opens a door, he never opens the door with the car. and he always offers a switch. What's more important than the information he has is the information he provides by using what he knows in a predictable way.

I fully understand your previous node, and actually we are in agreement about the necessary information to calculate the probablilities. We just differ on what the original problem statement is and/or what assumptions can be safely made for this specific problem.

Re the spooky math problem: what I wrote were my initial thoughts when I read that root node. I'll reserve judgement and not argue either side until I investigate further (depends on life, kids, the missus etc. if I ever get to it). From what I've seen, if you are this sure you are right then you probably are. I've seen stranger things with my own eyes, so I won't rule out any possibility.

In reply to Re^6: Marilyn Vos Savant's Monty Hall problem by bmann
in thread Marilyn Vos Savant's Monty Hall problem by mutated

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