When you ask the mother for a story, you've eliminated the 1 chance in 2 that she'll give you a story about a daughter, and that extra 1 chance in 4 that you eliminate is the possibility that she has a son and a daughter, and chose to tell you about the daughter instead of the son.

I can almost but not quite wrap my head around that. Can you expound all the possibilities you're taking into account here and which you have been eliminated?

Makeshifts last the longest.

In reply to Re^6: Marilyn Vos Savant's Monty Hall problem (odd odds) by Aristotle
in thread Marilyn Vos Savant's Monty Hall problem by mutated

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