Any company that fails to factor into it's business model, the cost of apprenticing the next generation of core competants, is only looking at the short term model. They are looking only to the salaries and pensions of the current generation--maybe 25 to 30 years. They are in business for commodity markets and the short term buck.

And any industry that consists in large part of companies that have short-term business plans is destined to dwindle to niche markets as the commoditisation of the skills involved forces large scale resellers of the product to cut costs by seeking lower labour costs abroad. Look at the histories of the motorcycle, car, shipbuilding, consumer electrics/electronics and many others for the precedences. Whilst is is certainly true that the software industry has significant differences from these manufacturing businesses, there are also similarities.

Software perhaps has more in common with industries like films, music and books news and other 'media' industries, which erstwhile have seen strong resistance to commoditisation due to high profit margins, mass 'star' appeal and carefully regulated distribution channels. But look around at those industries and witness the significant, watershed changes that are becoming manifest as I write.

All the media industries are seeing the writing on the wall and feeling the pinch as the freeing up of the distribution channels begins to bite. DMCA is their last gasp attempt to retain their distribution monopolies and cartels, but history shows very clearly that protectionism doesn't work. Developing nations won't wear it; consumers won't pay for it; the industries cannot police it; the legislative bodies eventually see the other side of the coin and rescind it. Telephony is a good example here.

Google (or someone like them), is destined to become the Warner Brothers or Dell of the software industry. There will be a few 'star' programmers that earn obscene amounts of money and the rest of us will be session musicians or chorus line bodies--if we are lucky.

Sad, and almost inevitable, but like the UK miners, we've only got ourselves to blame.

Examine what is said, not who speaks -- Silence betokens consent -- Love the truth but pardon error.
Lingua non convalesco, consenesco et abolesco. -- Rule 1 has a caveat! -- Who broke the cabal?
"Science is about questioning the status quo. Questioning authority".
In the absence of evidence, opinion is indistinguishable from prejudice.

In reply to Re: Where are future senior programmers coming from? by BrowserUk
in thread Where are future senior programmers coming from? by tilly

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