Standard industry estimates are that 80% of software costs come during the maintenance phase. Maintenance in this case is definitely not what you'd call "active development". So in the long run we can expect 80% of developer time to be spent on stuff that is in what you'd consider minimal maintenance.
Using agile incremental methodologies does not change this fact. Because no matter how wonderful your development process is, at some point the client is going to say, "OK, this is good enough, we don't want to pay for continued active development." And so you start leaving a trail of code that is in use but is no longer under active development. But that code is not perfect, and someone is going to wind up with the job of poking and prodding it along.
If history is a guide, we will always have more under challenged programmers than over challenged ones. Which means that there is a real potential opportunity from finding ways to help bored programmers improve their skills.
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