in reply to Re: Poker Odds for Texas Holdem
in thread Poker Odds for Texas Holdem

I'm not 100% sure what you mean here...

There have been others in this thread who have commented that it's a good idea to make some sort of estimate as to what the other players had in their pockets, and that you can use that estimate to increase the probability of your outs coming up (if you were correct). Is this what you were implying when you referenced the 47 card deck and the hold/cold hand?

If you're suggesting that I change the order of the columns, that's an adjustement you're able to make on your own, I'm sure. My "river" column represents what your chances would be of making your outs if you were on the turn, and you wanted to hit it on the river. It doesn't represent the chances of hitting your outs on the river, from the flop. Sorry if there was any confusion about that.

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Re: Re: Re: Poker Odds for Texas Holdem
by coder_ (Initiate) on Apr 04, 2004 at 00:40 UTC
    Basically this, notice the minute difference in probability for Turn then for River? Which you obviously know is simply because you are taking one card out of the equation. More useful knowledge is your odds of winning after the flop with the turn and river both left. Therefore it would make more sense to have your "Either" column listed as "Turn", since you still have turn and river to catch. After the Turn, your River column is fine. Do you follow why I suggest this? Obviously its only a suggestion of how you display your data, but how useful is information regarding "am I going to catch on the turn or river", when what you really consider is "what are the odds of me catching after the flop? what are the odds of catching after the turn?". Where the odds of catching after the flop is the Probability of 1 in 47 + 1 in 46 and after the turn 1 in 46. Basically.
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      Firstly, I'm just learning to play the game right now, and I don't know what the most useful knowledge is (from my understanding, there's differing opinions out there about that also, even among successful professionals).

      "More useful knowledge is your odds of winning after the flop with the turn and river both left... Therefore it would make more sense to have your 'Either' column listed as 'Turn'..."

      Regarding your other post, it's true that it would be more useful to know the odds of winning vs. hot/cold hands. However, I don't have the ability to do that right now, mathematically. It sounds like a pretty intense project.

      Regarding this post, what you're requesting that I do here is to remove a column of information. I would much rather that a user chose to ignore it than didn't have access to it, though.

      At a loose limit table, you're probably right about ignoring turn card odds in favour of board odds. However, at a no-limit table, turn card odds might be a valid consideration.

      Because everyone has their own opinions about these things, and because the "best" play changes according to betting limitations and opponents, I've put up as much info as possible, given my understanding of probabilities and the game.

      Regards,
Dave.
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Re: Poker Odds for Texas Holdem
by Anonymous Monk on Apr 03, 2004 at 22:03 UTC
    Too many people use the odds for both the turn and the river when in all actuality it doesnt matter what they are collectively after flop unless you are committed to staying around to see the river if your card(s) don't come on the turn and you want to ignore the odds of the river alone.
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