All of these points are already addressed in the posts I linked in my previous node, but to be abundantly explicit, here goes.
Spammers operate by targetting mass use software. They take a blogging tool, forum engine, or whatever it is, figure out how to spam any site using it, and then look for telltale signs in URLs such as mt-comment.cgi. Often they don't even visit the associated blog or forum. Check the access logs of an affected site if you don't believe me: all they usually do is dump a lump of their links onto the posting script and move on.
To these spammers, checking for nofollow is just extra cost without any benefit. And there is no cheap defense against them either. If so many people required registration that profitable spamming necessitated dealing with that, then registration would quickly be dealt with by the spammers and would become useless.
Only as long as your URLs don't look like those of commonly targetted software are you reasonably safe from this sort of automated spam. Unless, that is, it became fashionable for everyone to use custom URLs. But then spammers would actually have to crawl sites to find post forms, in which case the presence of nofollow might make a difference.
The value of a spam comment *is* different for the spammer depending on whether this link is nofollow or not.
Sure. Now let's remember that in the time it takes to check whether there is nofollow he could also have delivered a batch of spam, and then explain to me what kind of economic sense it makes for a spammer to check for it.
The fact is, spammers don't care. If they can spam you, they will. nofollow is useless to you as a site owner. It only helps Google when they visit your site.
you'll see someone actually advertising for a product/service that alerts advertisers about "cheaters" who carry their ads but add nofollow to them.
Again this is something addressed by one of the linked posts. And it just goes to show that nofollow will make a much bigger difference for non-spammers than it will ever affect the spamming problem.
Like hashcash, and indeed most any technological mechanism against spam, the idea is to make it somewhat less profitable
No, you can't compare the two at all. Hashcash prevents spam from happening in the first place. nofollow makes Google less affected by spam after the fact. In other words, if you aren't Google, then nofollow is useless to you while Hashcash isn't.
Well, unless you're trying to deprive your competitors of PageRank despite linking to them.
Makeshifts last the longest.