in reply to Re: Where are future senior programmers coming from?
in thread Where are future senior programmers coming from?

I strongly disagree about your "any industry" comment. For instance any new industry will be mostly populated by start-ups. And any startup that tries to plan for its 15 year future is unlikely to reach its 5 year future. Thinking about your long-term future is a luxury that you only have when you've reached the point that you're likely to have a long-term future.

Yet new industries routinely come into existence and manage to establish long-term successes.

This is very relevant in the field of software because software so frquently spawns new industries.

As for the compensation structure of programmers, Silicon Valley is a phenomena that has sustained itself for a period of decades now. I rather suspect that it will continue to do so until either the phenomena is reproduced in another country or else Moore's Law slows down to the point that there aren't continually new potential businesses opening up in the field of software. I am not prescient enough to attempt predicting what happens after that, but given the value delivered by good programmers, I suspect we'll get by.

(But with one big caveat. There is a lot of ageism in IT. Don't expect to see that change, and if you're a programmer, make plans for how you'll deal with that when you get there.)

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Re^3: Where are future senior programmers coming from?
by BrowserUk (Patriarch) on Sep 07, 2006 at 19:03 UTC
    I strongly disagree about your "any industry" comment. ... because software so frquently spawns new industries.

    I rather suspect that we have different definitions of the word "industry".

    Supercars (Ferrari, Lambougini, Noble, Koenigsegg etc.) and luxury tourers (Rolls royce, Bentley, Aston Martin etc.), are highly profitable niche markets--but they are all a part of the motorcar industry. Equally, the guys in the IT department at your local supermarket chain consider themselves a part of the software industry, not grocers.

    As their careers progress, programmers frequently move between markets as old ones give way to new--but they remain a part of the software industry.

    As for ageism, it's rife in many industries: sales; marketing; promotions; financial trading; software is far from unique in that respect. However, on a personal note, you may be adding two & two and coming up with five.

    Examine what is said, not who speaks -- Silence betokens consent -- Love the truth but pardon error.
    Lingua non convalesco, consenesco et abolesco. -- Rule 1 has a caveat! -- Who broke the cabal?
    "Science is about questioning the status quo. Questioning authority".
    In the absence of evidence, opinion is indistinguishable from prejudice.
[reply]
      I agree that we do have different definitions of the word "industry".

      For instance I do not consider my immediate employer to be part of the software industry. We certainly do not sell any software - we advertise apartment rentals. The company was founded by real estate entrepeneurs who wanted to get into the web. The largest department in the company (sales) is filled with real estate people - they come from real estate, work with people in real estate, and if they leave for other jobs, they leave for real estate jobs. Our most successful competitors leave piles of free magazines lying around outside of grocery stores. How are we in a traditional software business?

      That company was, of course, bought by eBay. But is eBay part of the software industry? Not by any concept of the software industry 20 years ago! eBay doesn't sell software, or services, or anything, really. Its main competitors when it started were antique stores, second hand shops, and flea markets. It is a completely new type of business, which happens to be enabled by software.

      So yes, overall I'd consider the web to be a new industry. Sure, it was created by improvements in software. But the closest historical analog to the web is the catalog business. (The analogy is actually quite close.) Which is about as far from software as you can imagine!

[reply]
        But is eBay part of the software industry?

        No, but does that mean you're no longer a programmer? No longer a part of the software industry?

        M&S are retailers, but they have a huge and important IT department. It has existed for 30 years or more. I believe they were one of the first private company owners of computer, but I cannot find that reference. They have their own in-house standards, development model, testing strategy etc. They have their own IT careers structure and training program.

        Their core competency has historically been retailing, but they have many other string to their bow.

        Did they cease to be part of the consumer retail industry?

        Are they not a part of the financial services industry? And the Travel & Leisure industry?

        They have a huge fleet of large trucks. Are they not also a part of the Transport industry?

        That company was, of course, bought by eBay.

        If Ebay had wanted Real Estate expertise, Sales people and client base, they would have bought one of the huge traditional US real-estate brokers. They didn't. They bought a (smallish?) web-based Real Estate company. What were they buying?

        20 years ago, Laser eye surgery was not a part of any concept of the Eye Care or Health Care industries, but can you deny that the many providers of that service are now so a part?

        Examine what is said, not who speaks -- Silence betokens consent -- Love the truth but pardon error.
        Lingua non convalesco, consenesco et abolesco. -- Rule 1 has a caveat! -- Who broke the cabal?
        "Science is about questioning the status quo. Questioning authority".
        In the absence of evidence, opinion is indistinguishable from prejudice.
[reply]

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