I don't really think though that Ireland belongs to the same group with the rest of the PIGS.
Well, they aren't in the same group as PIGS. But they're close. That's why there are PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain), PIIGS (PIGS + Ireland) and PIIGGS (PIIGS + United Kingdom).
| [reply] |
It's interesting where these groupings come from?
According to most sources I've found, (Eg. gdp.v.national debt), Italy is far more indebted that any of those 4(5(6)). And at the peak of the crisis (june09), the UK comes out better than USA, Canada, Germany or France.
Do you have better sources?
Examine what is said, not who speaks -- Silence betokens consent -- Love the truth but pardon error.
"Science is about questioning the status quo. Questioning authority".
In the absence of evidence, opinion is indistinguishable from prejudice.
| [reply] |
Wikipedia has an article, with references, which describes the term PIGS and its PIIGS and PIIGGS variations.
Italy is far more indebted that any of those 4(5(6)).
Considering that Italy is one of those 4(5(6)), I do not know what you mean.
Note also that national debt is just a single figure. It doesn't say what kind of debt it is (short term, long term), or, more importantly, where the money is borrowed from. It matters a lot whether a government is able to borrow money "internally" (that is, from its own population and banks) or abroad. The latter carries more risks. And then there are factors like trade deficit, unemployment rate, etc.
| [reply] |
Ireland went on a big fiscal austerity kick early on, yet despite all of that investors in the 10-year bond market (where higher rates correspond to less confidence) actually favor Spain, which has been dragged kicking and screaming into fiscal austerity. So I do not see how you can exclude Ireland from the picture when the best measure of market confidence shows Ireland slightly worse off than Spain. You just don't hear about it as much, plus any contagion is expected to spread from Greece to Portugal and Spain first.
Elda Taluta; Sarks Sark; Ark Arks
| [reply] |
That's only part of the story. First ... the investors probably believe Ireland it less important than Spain and therefore less likely to be saved by other European countries in case of real problems. And second ... both Ireland and the PIGS had been overspending. But while Ireland economy used to grow fairly quickly and they just failed to accommodate to the slowdown quickly enough, Greece and other PIGS were overspending for years and years and their growth had been ... little. Their problems are chronic.
Or maybe not. I ain't no economy guru :-)
Jenda
Enoch was right!
Enjoy the last years of Rome.
| [reply] |
The bond rates are very, very close (or were as a of a month or two ago), so I doubt expecting Spain to be bailed out but not Ireland explains it. Not to mention that there were some hard fought EU related battles in Ireland, so failing to bail them out would mean no more progress for the EU there (and while the EMU may collapse or change radically, I expect the EU to survive).
As a side note, unlike Greece and some of the others Spain was not actually misbehaving (i.e. the government regarding irresponsible debt). I think the housing bubble burst bit them hard like it did in many countries (i.e. private sector screwed everything up like here in the US [excluding failures of regulatory agencies to do their job]).
Update: Fixed grammar in first sentence
Elda Taluta; Sarks Sark; Ark Arks
| [reply] |