I strongly disagree about your "any industry" comment. For instance any new industry will be mostly populated by start-ups. And any startup that tries to plan for its 15 year future is unlikely to reach its 5 year future. Thinking about your long-term future is a luxury that you only have when you've reached the point that you're likely to have a long-term future.

Yet new industries routinely come into existence and manage to establish long-term successes.

This is very relevant in the field of software because software so frquently spawns new industries.

As for the compensation structure of programmers, Silicon Valley is a phenomena that has sustained itself for a period of decades now. I rather suspect that it will continue to do so until either the phenomena is reproduced in another country or else Moore's Law slows down to the point that there aren't continually new potential businesses opening up in the field of software. I am not prescient enough to attempt predicting what happens after that, but given the value delivered by good programmers, I suspect we'll get by.

(But with one big caveat. There is a lot of ageism in IT. Don't expect to see that change, and if you're a programmer, make plans for how you'll deal with that when you get there.)

In reply to Re^2: Where are future senior programmers coming from? by tilly
in thread Where are future senior programmers coming from? by tilly

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